Malaria trends in districts that were targeted and not-targeted for seasonal malaria chemoprevention in children under 5 years of age in Guinea, 2014-2021.

BACKGROUND: Seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) is a main intervention to prevent and reduce childhood malaria. Since 2015, Guinea has implemented SMC targeting children aged 3-59 months (CU5) in districts with high and seasonal malaria transmission. OBJECTIVE: We assessed the programmatic impact of SMC in Guinea's context of scaled up malaria intervention programming by comparing malaria-related outcomes in 14 districts that had or had not been targeted for SMC. METHODS: Using routine health management information system data, we compared the district-level monthly test positivity rate (TPR) and monthly uncomplicated and severe malaria incidence for the whole population and disaggregated age groups (<5 years and ≥5 years of age). Changes in malaria indicators through time were analysed by calculating the district-level compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2014 to 2021; we used statistical analyses to describe trends in tested clinical cases, TPR, uncomplicated malaria incidence and severe malaria incidence. RESULTS: The CAGR of TPR of all age groups was statistically lower in SMC (median=-7.8%) compared with non-SMC (median=-3.0%) districts. Similarly, the CAGR in uncomplicated malaria incidence was significantly lower in SMC (median=1.8%) compared with non-SMC (median=11.5%) districts. For both TPR and uncomplicated malaria incidence, the observed difference was also significant when age disaggregated. The CAGR of severe malaria incidence showed that all age groups experienced a decline in severe malaria in both SMC and non-SMC districts. However, this decline was significantly higher in SMC (median=-22.3%) than in non-SMC (median=-5.1%) districts for the entire population, as well as both CU5 and people over 5 years of age. CONCLUSION: Even in an operational programming context, adding SMC to the malaria intervention package yields a positive epidemiological impact and results in a greater reduction in TPR, as well as the incidence of uncomplicated and severe malaria in CU5.

How Real-Time Case-Based Malaria Surveillance Helps Zanzibar Get a Step Closer to Malaria Elimination: Description of Operational Platform and Resources.

Testing and treating asymptomatic populations have the potential to reduce the population's parasite reservoir and reduce malaria transmission. Zanzibar's malaria case notification (MCN) platform collects detailed sociodemographic and epidemiological data from all confirmed malaria cases to inform programmatic decision-making. We describe the design and operationalization process of the platform and other malaria surveillance resources that are enabling Zanzibar's progress toward malaria elimination.The MCN platform consists of an interactive short message service (SMS) system for case notification, a software application for Android mobile devices, a visual question set and workflow manager, a back-end database server, and a web browser-based application for data analytics, configuration, and management. Malaria case data were collected from August 2012 to December 2021 and reported via SMS from all public and private health facilities to a central database and then to district malaria surveillance officers' mobile devices. Data included patient names, shehia (administrative area), and date of diagnosis, enabling officers to track patients, ideally within 24 hours of reporting. Patients' household members were tested for malaria using conventional rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs). Treatment using artemisinin-based combination therapy was provided for persons testing positive.Between 2012 and 2021, a total of 48,899 index malaria cases were confirmed at health facilities, 22,152 (45.3%) within 24 hours of reporting; 41,886 (85.7%) cases were fully investigated and followed up to the household level. A total of 111,811 additional household members were tested with RDTs, of whom 10,602 (9.5%) were malaria positive.The MCN platform reports malaria case data in near real time, enabling prompt follow-up of index cases and prompt testing and treatment of members in index case households. Along with routine testing and treatment and other preventive interventions, the MCN platform is foundational to the programmatic efforts in further reducing malaria and ultimately eliminating autochthonous malaria transmission in Zanzibar.

Integrating nutrition assessments and seasonal malaria chemoprevention: Results from a mixed-methods feasibility study in Guinea.

BACKGROUND: Seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) has become a critical intervention for malaria prevention and control. There is a growing interest to generate evidence that health campaigns such as SMC can be leveraged for integration or co-administration of other health efforts such as nutritional supplements, immunizations, or vitamin A. OBJECTIVE: We conducted a pilot study to assess whether nutrition assessments could be integrated into existing SMC programming in two districts in Guinea. METHODS: Of 106,480 children under 5 years of age (CU5) who received sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine plus amodiaquine as part of SMC by community drug distributors (CDDs), 2210 had their mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) assessed by CDD supervisors. RESULTS: Of these, 177 (8.0%) had a MUAC < 125 mm and were therefore classified as acutely malnourished; 161 CU5 were referred to health facilities for follow-up. Importantly, no drop in SMC programmatic coverage was observed in districts conducting MUAC on top of SMC. Key informant interviews with district officials and focus group discussions with CDD supervisors showed a generally positive effect of integrating MUAC into SMC, although CDD supervisors had concerns about workload with added responsibilities of MUAC assessments. CONCLUSION: Integrating other health interventions with SMC is accepted-and indeed welcomed-by the population and health workers, and does not result in a drop in SMC programmatic coverage.

How well do coverage surveys and programmatically reported mass drug administration coverage match? Results from 214 mass drug administration campaigns in 15 countries, 2008-2017.

INTRODUCTION: Delivering preventive chemotherapy through mass drug administration (MDA) is a central approach in controlling or eliminating several neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Treatment coverage, a primary indicator of MDA performance, can be measured through routinely reported programmatic data or population-based coverage evaluation surveys. Reported coverage is often the easiest and least expensive way to estimate coverage; however, it is prone to inaccuracies due to errors in data compilation and imprecise denominators, and in some cases measures treatments offered as opposed to treatments swallowed. OBJECTIVE: Analyses presented here aimed to understand (1) how often coverage calculated using routinely reported data and survey data would lead programme managers to make the same programmatic decisions; (2) the magnitude and direction of the difference between these two estimates, and (3) whether there is meaningful variation by region, age group or country. METHODS: We analysed and compared reported and surveyed treatment coverage data from 214 MDAs implemented between 2008 and 2017 in 15 countries in Africa, Asia and the Caribbean. Routinely reported treatment coverage was compiled using data reported by national NTD programmes to donors, either directly or via NTD implementing partners, following the implementation of a district-level MDA campaign; coverage was calculated by dividing the number of individuals treated by a population value, which is typically based on national census projections and occasionally community registers. Surveyed treatment coverage came from post-MDA community-based coverage evaluation surveys, which were conducted as per standardised WHO recommended methodology. RESULTS: Coverage estimates using routine reporting and surveys gave the same result in terms of whether the minimum coverage threshold was reached in 72% of the MDAs surveyed in the Africa region and in 52% in the Asia region. The reported coverage value was within ±10 percentage points of the surveyed coverage value in 58/124 of the surveyed MDAs in the Africa region and 19/77 in the Asia region. Concordance between routinely reported and surveyed coverage estimates was 64% for the total population and 72% for school-age children. The study data showed variation across countries in the number of surveys conducted as well as the frequency with which there was concordance between the two coverage estimates. CONCLUSIONS: Programme managers must grapple with making decisions based on imperfect information, balancing needs for accuracy with cost and available capacity. The study shows that for many of the MDAs surveyed, based on the concordance with respect to reaching the minimum coverage thresholds, the routinely reported data were accurate enough to make programmatic decisions. Where coverage surveys do show a need to improve accuracy of routinely reported results, NTD programme managers should use various tools and approaches to strengthen data quality in order to use data for decision-making to achieve NTD control and elimination goals.

Trends of insecticide resistance monitoring in mainland Tanzania, 2004-2020.

BACKGROUND: Insecticide resistance is a serious threat to the continued effectiveness of insecticide-based malaria vector control measures, such as long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS). This paper describes trends and dynamics of insecticide resistance and its underlying mechanisms from annual resistance monitoring surveys on Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (s.l.) populations conducted across mainland Tanzania from 2004 to 2020. METHODS: The World Health Organization (WHO) standard protocols were used to assess susceptibility of the wild female An. gambiae s.l. mosquitoes to insecticides, with mosquitoes exposed to diagnostic concentrations of permethrin, deltamethrin, lambdacyhalothrin, bendiocarb, and pirimiphos-methyl. WHO test papers at 5× and 10× the diagnostic concentrations were used to assess the intensity of resistance to pyrethroids; synergist tests using piperonyl butoxide (PBO) were carried out in sites where mosquitoes were found to be resistant to pyrethroids. To estimate insecticide resistance trends from 2004 to 2020, percentage mortalities from each site and time point were aggregated and regression analysis of mortality versus the Julian dates of bioassays was performed. RESULTS: Percentage of sites with pyrethroid resistance increased from 0% in 2004 to more than 80% in the 2020, suggesting resistance has been spreading geographically. Results indicate a strong negative association (p = 0.0001) between pyrethroids susceptibility status and survey year. The regression model shows that by 2020 over 40% of An. gambiae mosquitoes survived exposure to pyrethroids at their respective diagnostic doses. A decreasing trend of An. gambiae susceptibility to bendiocarb was observed over time, but this was not statistically significant (p = 0.8413). Anopheles gambiae exhibited high level of susceptibility to the pirimiphos-methyl in sampled sites. CONCLUSIONS: Anopheles gambiae Tanzania's major malaria vector, is now resistant to pyrethroids across the country with resistance increasing in prevalence and intensity and has been spreading geographically. This calls for urgent action for efficient malaria vector control tools to sustain the gains obtained in malaria control. Strengthening insecticide resistance monitoring is important for its management through evidence generation for effective malaria vector control decision.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of malaria in Zanzibar, 2015-2020.

BACKGROUND: Despite high coverage of malaria interventions, malaria elimination in Zanzibar remains elusive, with the annual number of cases increasing gradually over the last 3 years. OBJECTIVE: The aims of the study were to (1) assess the spatiotemporal dynamics of malaria in Zanzibar between 2015 and 2020 and (2) identify malaria hotspots that would allow Zanzibar to develop an epidemiological stratification for more effective and granular intervention targeting. METHODS: In this study, we analysed data routinely collected by Zanzibar's Malaria Case Notification (MCN) system. The system collects sociodemographic and epidemiological data from all malaria cases. Cases are passively detected at health facilities (ie, primary index cases) and through case follow-up and reactive case detection (ie, secondary cases). Analyses were performed to identify the spatial heterogeneity of case reporting at shehia (ward) level during transmission seasons. RESULTS: From 1 January 2015 to 30 April 2020, the MCN system reported 22 686 index cases. Number of cases reported showed a declining trends from 2015 to 2016, followed by an increase from 2017 to 2020. More than 40% of cases had a travel history outside Zanzibar in the month prior to testing positive for malaria. The proportion of followed up index cases was approximately 70% for all years. Out of 387 shehias, 79 (20.4%) were identified as malaria hotspots in any given year; these hotspots reported 52% of all index cases during the study period. Of the 79 hotspot shehias, 12 were hotspots in more than 4 years, that is, considered temporally stable, reporting 14.5% of all index cases. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings confirm that the scale-up of malaria interventions has greatly reduced malaria transmission in Zanzibar since 2006. Analyses identified hotspots, some of which were stable across multiple years. Malaria efforts should progress from a universal intervention coverage approach to an approach that is more tailored to a select number of hotspot shehias.

Mosquito aquatic habitat modification and manipulation interventions to control malaria.

BACKGROUND: Larval source management (LSM) may help reduce Plasmodium parasite transmission in malaria-endemic areas. LSM approaches include habitat modification (permanently or temporarily reducing mosquito breeding aquatic habitats); habitat manipulation (temporary or recurrent change to environment); or use of chemical (e.g. larviciding) or biological agents (e.g. natural predators) to breeding sites. We examined the effectiveness of habitat modification or manipulation (or both), with and without larviciding. This is an update of a review published in 2013. OBJECTIVES: 1. To describe and summarize the interventions on mosquito aquatic habitat modification or mosquito aquatic habitat manipulation, or both, on malaria control. 2. To evaluate the beneficial and harmful effects of mosquito aquatic habitat modification or mosquito aquatic habitat manipulation, or both, on malaria control. SEARCH METHODS: We used standard, extensive Cochrane search methods. The latest search was from January 2012 to 30 November 2021. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomized controlled trials (RCT) and non-randomized intervention studies comparing mosquito aquatic habitat modification or manipulation (or both) to no treatment or another active intervention. We also included uncontrolled before-after (BA) studies, but only described and summarized the interventions from studies with these designs. Primary outcomes were clinical malaria incidence, malaria parasite prevalence, and malaria parasitaemia incidence. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We used standard Cochrane methods. We assessed risk of bias using the Cochrane RoB 2 tool for RCTs and the ROBINS-I tool for non-randomized intervention studies. We used a narrative synthesis approach to systematically describe and summarize all the interventions included within the review, categorized by the type of intervention (habitat modification, habitat manipulation, combination of habitat modification and manipulation). Our primary outcomes were 1. clinical malaria incidence; 2. malaria parasite prevalence; and 3. malaria parasitaemia incidence. Our secondary outcomes were 1. incidence of severe malaria; 2. anaemia prevalence; 3. mean haemoglobin levels; 4. mortality rate due to malaria; 5. hospital admissions for malaria; 6. density of immature mosquitoes; 7. density of adult mosquitoes; 8. sporozoite rate; 9. entomological inoculation rate; and 10. HARMS: We used the GRADE approach to assess the certainty of the evidence for each type of intervention. MAIN RESULTS: Sixteen studies met the inclusion criteria. Six used an RCT design, six used a controlled before-after (CBA) study design, three used a non-randomized controlled design, and one used an uncontrolled BA study design. Eleven studies were conducted in Africa and five in Asia. Five studies reported epidemiological outcomes and 15 studies reported entomological outcomes. None of the included studies reported on the environmental impacts associated with the intervention. For risk of bias, all trials had some concerns and other designs ranging from moderate to critical. Ten studies assessed habitat manipulation (temporary change to the environment). This included water management (spillways across streams; floodgates; intermittent flooding; different drawdown rates of water; different flooding and draining regimens), shading management (shading of drainage channels with different plants), other/combined management approaches (minimal tillage; disturbance of aquatic habitats with grass clearing and water replenishment), which showed mixed results for entomological outcomes. Spillways across streams, faster drawdown rates of water, shading drainage canals with Napier grass, and using minimal tillage may reduce the density of immature mosquitoes (range of effects from 95% reduction to 1.7 times increase; low-certainty evidence), and spillways across streams may reduce densities of adult mosquitoes compared to no intervention (low-certainty evidence). However, the effect of habitat manipulation on malaria parasite prevalence and clinical malaria incidence is uncertain (very low-certainty evidence). Two studies assessed habitat manipulation with larviciding. This included reducing or removal of habitat sites; and drain cleaning, grass cutting, and minor repairs. It is uncertain whether drain cleaning, grass cutting, and minor repairs reduces malaria parasite prevalence compared to no intervention (odds ratio 0.59, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.42 to 0.83; very low-certainty evidence). Two studies assessed combination of habitat manipulation and permanent change (habitat modification). This included drainage canals, filling, and planting of papyrus and other reeds for shading near dams; and drainage of canals, removal of debris, land levelling, and filling ditches. Studies did not report on epidemiological outcomes, but entomological outcomes suggest that such activities may reduce the density of adult mosquitoes compared to no intervention (relative risk reduction 0.49, 95% CI 0.47 to 0.50; low-certainty evidence), and preventing water stagnating using drainage of canals, removal of debris, land levelling, and filling ditches may reduce the density of immature mosquitoes compared to no intervention (ranged from 10% to 55% reductions; low-certainty evidence). Three studies assessed combining manipulation and modification with larviciding. This included filling or drainage of water bodies; filling, draining, or elimination of rain pools and puddles at water supply points and stream bed pools; and shoreline work, improvement and maintenance to drainage, clearing vegetation and undergrowth, and filling pools. There were mixed effect sizes for the reduction of entomological outcomes (moderate-certainty evidence). However, filling or draining water bodies probably makes little or no difference to malaria parasite prevalence, haemoglobin levels, or entomological inoculation rate when delivered with larviciding compared to no intervention (moderate-certainty evidence). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Habitat modification and manipulation interventions for preventing malaria has some indication of benefit in both epidemiological and entomological outcomes. While the data are quite mixed and further studies could help improve the knowledge base, these varied approaches may be useful in some circumstances.

Improvements in malaria surveillance through the electronic Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (eIDSR) system in mainland Tanzania, 2013-2021.

BACKGROUND: Tanzania has made remarkable progress in reducing malaria burden and aims to transition from malaria control to sub-national elimination. In 2013, electronic weekly and monthly reporting platforms using the District Health Information System 2 (DHIS2) were introduced. Weekly reporting was implemented through the mobile phone-based Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (eIDSR) platform and progressively scaled-up from 67 to 7471 (100%) public and private health facilities between 2013 and 2020. This study describes the roll-out and large-scale implementation of eIDSR and compares the consistency between weekly eIDSR and monthly DHIS2 malaria indicator data reporting, including an assessment of its usefulness for malaria outbreak detection and case-based surveillance (CBS) in low transmission areas. METHODS: The indicators included in the analysis were number of patients tested for malaria, number of confirmed malaria cases, and clinical cases (treated presumptively for malaria). The analysis described the time trends of reporting, testing, test positivity, and malaria cases between 2013 and 2021. For both weekly eIDSR and monthly DHIS2 data, comparisons of annual reporting completeness, malaria cases and annualized incidence were performed for 2020 and 2021; additionally, comparisons were stratified by malaria epidemiological strata (parasite prevalence: very low < 1%, low 1 ≤ 5%, moderate 5 ≤ 30%, and high > 30%). RESULTS: Weekly eIDSR reporting completeness steadily improved over time, with completeness being 90.2% in 2020 and 93.9% in 2021; conversely, monthly DHIS2 reporting completeness was 98.9% and 98.7% in 2020 and 2021, respectively. Weekly eIDSR reporting completeness and timeliness were highest in the very low epidemiological stratum. Annualized malaria incidence as reported by weekly eIDSR was 17.5% and 12.4% lower than reported by monthly DHIS2 in 2020 and 2021; for both 2020 and 2021, annualized incidence was similar across weekly and monthly data in the very low stratum. CONCLUSION: The concurrence of annualized weekly eIDSR and monthly DHIS2 reporting completeness, malaria cases and incidence in very low strata suggests that eIDSR could be useful tool for early outbreak detection, and the eIDSR platform could reliably be expanded by adding more indicators and modules for CBS in the very low epidemiological stratum.

Modelling Insecticide Resistance of Malaria Vector Populations in Tanzania.

Anopheline mosquito insecticide resistance is a major threat to malaria control efforts and ultimately countries' ability to eliminate malaria. Using publicly available and published data we conducted spatial analyses to document and model the geo-spatial distribution of Anopheles gambiae s.l. insecticide resistance in Tanzania at national, regional, district and sub-district levels for the 2011 - 2017 period. We document anopheline mosquito resistance to all four major insecticide classes, with overall mosquito mortality declining from 2011 to 2016, and mean reductions of 1.6%, 0.5%, 0.4%, and 9.9% observed for organophosphates, carbamates, organochlorines and pyrethroids, respectively. An insecticide resistance map modeled for 2017 predicted that anopheline vector mortality was still above the 90% susceptibility threshold for all insecticide classes, except for pyrethroids. Using the model's output we calculated that resistance to organophosphates, carbamates, organochlorines, and pyrethroids is expected to exist in 11.6%, 15.6%, 8.1%, and 19.5% of Tanzania's territory, respectively, with areas in the Lake Zone and eastern Tanzania particularly affected. The methodology to predictively model available insecticide resistance data can readily be updated annually, allowing policy makers and malaria program management staff to continuously adjust their vector control approaches and plans, and determine where specific insecticides from various classes should be used to maximize intervention effectiveness.

Leaving no one behind: targeting mobile and migrant populations with health interventions for disease elimination-a descriptive systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Mobile and migrant populations (MMPs) pose a unique challenge to disease elimination campaigns as they are often hard to survey and reach with treatment. While some elimination efforts have had success reaching MMPs, other campaigns are struggling to do so, which may be affecting progress towards disease control and elimination. Therefore, this paper reviews the literature on elimination campaigns targeting MMPs across a selection of elimination diseases-neglected tropical diseases, malaria, trypanosomiasis, polio, smallpox, and rinderpest. METHODS: Through a systematic review process following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, a three-person review team identified papers from databases, conference records, and citation searches using inclusion/exclusion criteria. Papers were divided into three key outcome domains during the synthetization process: (1) MMP movement patterns in East Africa including reasons for movement and consequences in terms of health outcomes and healthcare access; (2) MMP contribution to the transmission of disease across all geographies; (3) surveillance methods and treatment interventions used to implement programming in MMPs across all geographies. Experts in the field also provided supplemental information and gray literature to support this review. RESULTS: The review identified 103 records which were descriptively analyzed using the outcome domains. The results indicate that in East Africa, there are various motivations for migration from economic opportunity to political unrest to natural disasters. Regardless of motivation, mobile lifestyles affect health service access such that MMPs in East Africa report barriers in accessing healthcare and have limited health knowledge. Often lower service delivery to these populations has resulted in higher disease prevalence. A minority of articles suggest MMPs do not pose challenges to reaching disease control and elimination thresholds. Finally, the literature highlighted surveillance methods (e.g., using satellite imagery or mobile phone data to track movement, participatory mapping, snowball sampling) and intervention strategies (e.g., integration with animal health campaigns, cross-border coordination, alternative mass drug administration [MDA] methods) to implement health interventions in MMPs. CONCLUSIONS: Ultimately, the literature reviewed here can inform programmatic decisions as the community attempts to reach these never treated populations. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: The protocol for this manuscript was registered with the International Prospective Registry of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) (No. CRD42021214743).

Estimating the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions to mitigate COVID-19 spread in Saudi Arabia.

BACKGROUND: The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) quickly controlled the spread of SARS-CoV-2 by implementing several non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including suspension of international and national travel, local curfews, closing public spaces (i.e., schools and universities, malls and shops), and limiting religious gatherings. The KSA also mandated all citizens to respect physical distancing and to wear face masks. However, after relaxing some restrictions during June 2020, the KSA is now planning a strategy that could allow resuming in-person education and international travel. The aim of our study was to evaluate the effect of NPIs on the spread of the COVID-19 and test strategies to open schools and resume international travel. METHODS: We built a spatial-explicit individual-based model to represent the whole KSA population (IBM-KSA). The IBM-KSA was parameterized using country demographic, remote sensing, and epidemiological data. A social network was created to represent contact heterogeneity and interaction among age groups of the population. The IBM-KSA also simulated the movement of people across the country based on a gravity model. We used the IBM-KSA to evaluate the effect of different NPIs adopted by the KSA (physical distancing, mask-wearing, and contact tracing) and to forecast the impact of strategies to open schools and resume international travels. RESULTS: The IBM-KSA results scenarios showed the high effectiveness of mask-wearing, physical distancing, and contact tracing in controlling the spread of the disease. Without NPIs, the KSA could have reported 4,824,065 (95% CI: 3,673,775-6,335,423) cases by June 2021. The IBM-KSA showed that mandatory mask-wearing and physical distancing saved 39,452 lives (95% CI: 26,641-44,494). In-person education without personal protection during teaching would have resulted in a high surge of COVID-19 cases. Compared to scenarios with no personal protection, enforcing mask-wearing and physical distancing in schools reduced cases, hospitalizations, and deaths by 25% and 50%, when adherence to these NPIs was set to 50% and 70%, respectively. The IBM-KSA also showed that a quarantine imposed on international travelers reduced the probability of outbreaks in the country. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed that the interventions adopted by the KSA were able to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the absence of a vaccine. In-person education should be resumed only if NPIs could be applied in schools and universities. International travel can be resumed but with strict quarantine rules. The KSA needs to keep strict NPIs in place until a high fraction of the population is vaccinated in order to reduce hospitalizations and deaths.

Risk factors associated with malaria infection identified through reactive case detection in Zanzibar, 2012-2019.

BACKGROUND: Over the past two decades, Zanzibar substantially reduced malaria burden. As malaria decreases, sustainable improvements in control interventions may increasingly depend on accurate knowledge of malaria risk factors to further target interventions. This study aimed to investigate the risk factors associated with malaria infection in Zanzibar. METHODS: Surveillance data from Zanzibar's Malaria Case Notification system from August 2012 and December 2019 were analyzed. This system collects data on malaria cases passively detected and reported by all health facilities (index cases), and household-based reactive case detection (RCD) activities linked to those primary cases. All members of households of the index cases were screened for malaria using a malaria rapid diagnostic test (RDT). Individuals with a positive RDT were treated with artemisinin-based combination therapy. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were done to investigate the association between RDT positivity among the household members and explanatory factors with adjustment for seasonality and clustering at Shehia level. RESULTS: A total of 30,647 cases were reported of whom household RCD was completed for 21,443 (63%) index case households and 85,318 household members tested for malaria. The findings show that younger age (p-value for trend [Ptrend] < 0.001), history of fever in the last 2 weeks (odds ratio [OR] = 35.7; 95% CI 32.3-39.5), travel outside Zanzibar in the last 30 days (OR = 2.5; 95% CI 2.3-2.8) and living in Unguja (OR = 1.2; 95% CI 1.0-1.5) were independently associated with increased odds of RDT positivity. In contrast, male gender (OR=0.8; 95% CI 0.7-0.9), sleeping under an LLIN the previous night (OR = 0.9; 95% CI 0.7-0.9), having higher household net access (Ptrend < 0.001), and living in a household that received IRS in the last 12 months (OR = 0.8; 95% CI 0.7-0.9) were independently associated with reduced odds of RDT positivity. A significant effect modification of combining IRS and LLIN was also noted (OR = 0.7; 95% CI 0.6-0.8). CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that vector control remains an important malaria prevention intervention: they underscore the need to maintain universal access to LLINs, the persistent promotion of LLIN use, and application of IRS. Additionally, enhanced behavioural change and preventive strategies targeting children aged 5-14 years and travellers are needed.

Arboviral diseases and poverty in Alabama, 2007-2017.

Mosquito-borne viruses cause diseases of great public health concern. Arboviral disease case distributions have complex relationships with socioeconomic and environmental factors. We combined information about socio-economic (population, and poverty rate) and environmental (precipitation, and land use) characteristics with reported human cases of arboviral disease in the counties of Alabama, USA, from 2007-2017. We used county level data on West Nile virus (WNV), dengue virus (DENV), chikungunya virus (CHIKV), Zika virus (ZIKV), California serogroup virus, Eastern equine encephalitis virus, and Saint Louis encephalitis virus to provide a detailed description of their spatio-temporal pattern. We found a significant spatial convergence between incidence of WNV and poverty rate clustered in the southern part of Alabama. DENV, CHIKV and ZIKV cases showed a different spatial pattern, being mostly located in the northern part, in areas of high socioeconomic status. The results of our study establish that poverty-driven inequities in arboviral risk exist in the southern USA, and should be taken into account when planning prevention and intervention strategies.

Preventive chemotherapy for the control of strongyloidiasis in school-age children: Estimating the ivermectin need.

BACKGROUND: Strongyloides stercoralis is a soil-transmitted helminth (STH) that affects approximately 600 million people worldwide. Interventions targeting S. stercoralis have not been implemented yet. Specific treatment (ivermectin) could be included in already ongoing preventive chemotherapy (PC) campaigns targeting other STHs. The aim of this study was to estimate the quantity of ivermectin needed for an integrated STH/S. stercoralis control program. METHODODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Our study estimates the number of school- age children (SAC) (the main focus of STH deworming campaigns) in need of PC with ivermectin. The normal approximation of the binomial distribution was adopted to calculate the hypothetical prevalence distribution in each endemic country. Considering prevalence thresholds for PC equal to 10%, 15%, and 20%, we estimated the number of SAC in need of treatment. We adjusted the estimates accounting for ivermectin distributed in lymphatic filariasis and onchocerciasis elimination programs and excluded from our calculation areas where Loa loa is endemic. The global number of SAC that should be targeted in PC campaigns was estimated at 283.9 M (95% CI: 163.4-368.8), 207.2 M (95% CI: 160.9-380.7), and 160.7 M (95% CI: 86.6-225.7) when the threshold for intervention was set to 10%, 15%, and 20%, respectively. India, China, Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Nigeria accounted for about 50% of the global SAC would have to be covered by PC intervention. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our analysis may support endemic countries to evaluate the ivermectin quantity needed for integrating strongyloidiasis in the existing STH programs. These estimates might also show to generic drug manufacturers the size of the potential market for ivermectin and encourage its production.

Travel Is a Key Risk Factor for Malaria Transmission in Pre-Elimination Settings in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Review of the Literature and Meta-Analysis.

By sustaining transmission or causing malaria outbreaks, imported malaria undermines malaria elimination efforts. Few studies have examined the impact of travel on malaria epidemiology. We conducted a literature review and meta-analysis of studies investigating travel as a risk factor for malaria infection in sub-Saharan Africa using PubMed. We identified 22 studies and calculated a random-effects meta-analysis pooled odds ratio (OR) of 3.77 (95% CI: 2.49-5.70), indicating that travel is a significant risk factor for malaria infection. Odds ratios were particularly high in urban locations when travel was to rural areas, to more endemic/high transmission areas, and in young children. Although there was substantial heterogeneity in the magnitude of association across the studies, the pooled estimate and directional consistency support travel as an important risk factor for malaria infection.

Use of Twitter social media activity as a proxy for human mobility to predict the spatiotemporal spread of COVID-19 at global scale.

As of February 27, 2020, 82,294 confirmed cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) have been reported since December 2019, including 2,804 deaths, with cases reported throughout China, as well as in 45 international locations outside of mainland China. We predict the spatiotemporal spread of reported COVID- 19 cases at the global level during the first few weeks of the current outbreak by analyzing openly available geolocated Twitter social media data. Human mobility patterns were estimated by analyzing geolocated 2013-2015 Twitter data from users who had: i) tweeted at least twice on consecutive days from Wuhan, China, between November 1, 2013, and January 28, 2014, and November 1, 2014, and January 28, 2015; and ii) left Wuhan following their second tweet during the time period under investigation. Publicly available COVID-19 case data were used to investigate the correlation among cases reported during the current outbreak, locations visited by the study cohort of Twitter users, and airports with scheduled flights from Wuhan. Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index (IDVI) data were obtained to identify the capacity of countries receiving travellers from Wuhan to respond to COVID-19. Our study cohort comprised 161 users. Of these users, 133 (82.6%) posted tweets from 157 Chinese cities (1,344 tweets) during the 30 days after leaving Wuhan following their second tweet, with a median of 2 (IQR= 1-3) locations visited and a mean distance of 601 km (IQR= 295.2-834.7 km) traveled. Of our user cohort, 60 (37.2%) traveled abroad to 119 locations in 28 countries. Of the 82 COVID-19 cases reported outside China as of January 30, 2020, 54 cases had known geolocation coordinates and 74.1% (40 cases) were reported less than 15 km (median = 7.4 km, IQR= 2.9-285.5 km) from a location visited by at least one of our study cohort's users. Countries visited by the cohort's users and which have cases reported by January 30, 2020, had a median IDVI equal to 0.74. We show that social media data can be used to predict the spatiotemporal spread of infectious diseases such as COVID-19. Based on our analyses, we anticipate cases to be reported in Saudi Arabia and Indonesia; additionally, countries with a moderate to low IDVI (i.e. ≤0.7) such as Indonesia, Pakistan, and Turkey should be on high alert and develop COVID- 19 response plans as soon as permitting.

The Global Prevalence of Strongyloides stercoralis Infection.

Strongyloidiasis is a common neglected tropical disease in tropical and sub-tropical climatic zones. At the worldwide level, there is high uncertainty about the strongyloidiasis burden. This uncertainty represents an important knowledge gap since it affects the planning of interventions to reduce the burden of strongyloidiasis in endemic countries. This study aimed to estimate the global strongyloidiasis prevalence. A literature review was performed to obtain prevalence data from endemic countries at a worldwide level from 1990 to 2016. For each study, the true population prevalence was calculated by accounting for the specificity and the sensitivity of testing and age of tested individuals. Prediction of strongyloidiasis prevalence for each country was performed using a spatiotemporal statistical modeling approach. The country prevalence obtained from the model was used to estimate the number of infected people per country. We estimate the global prevalence of strongyloidiasis in 2017 to be 8.1% (95% CI: 4.2-12.4%), corresponding to 613.9 (95% CI: 313.1-910.1) million people infected. The South-East Asia, African, and Western Pacific Regions accounted for 76.1% of the global infections. Our results could be used to identify those countries in which strongyloidiasis prevalence is highest and where mass drug administration (MDA) should be deployed for its prevention and control.